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Students Predict Environmental Scenarios
Students in the Climate Science and Environmental Justice class put their semester of knowledge to the test through a research project that involved attempting to predict the impact of climate change in a selected region of the world by 2050.
Teachers Xiao Zhang and Andy Bigelow introduced the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). Climate researchers use these scenarios to explore how global society, demographics and economics might evolve during the 21st century, affecting greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. There are five distinct pathways that represent different ways the world could develop in terms of population growth, economic development, technological progress, energy use and environmental policies:
- SSP1 (“Sustainability”) envisions a world making significant efforts toward sustainability, with low inequality, green energy and sustainable economic practices.
- SSP2 (“Middle of the Road”) describes a future that continues on current trajectories, with moderate economic growth, technological development and environmental awareness.
- SSP3 (“Regional Rivalry”) projects a fragmented world with high population growth, limited technological advancement and countries prioritizing self-reliance and security over cooperation.
- SSP4 (“Inequality”) portrays a world with high inequality: well-off regions focus on technology and carbon reduction while poorer regions face significant challenges.
- SSP5 (“Fossil-Fueled Development”) imagines a future driven by rapid economic growth and high energy demands, primarily reliant on fossil fuels, with little effort to mitigate climate change.
Students chose one future pathway from options 1, 2, 3 and 5 that they predicted would affect their region’s future in 2050.
In undertaking their research, students used resources in Parker’s Kovler Family Library and beyond to compile a list of sources. They considered information that might be missing, which might additionally inform their work and the impact on the region’s future.
Based on what they had learned and the projected pathway they selected, students first wrote an essay describing this particular location in 2050 based on the effects of climate change. Next, they tapped into their inner artists using visual storytelling to create an original piece about climate change at this location in 2050. At the onset of the assignment, Art Department Chair Kay Silva guided students via a presentation on the power or art to deepen understanding and invited students to seek her assistance as they worked on their pieces.
After researching their region, projecting a scenario and creating a visual aid, students offered their presentations, pieces and process during class and installed their final pieces in the hallway to share with their peers.
By varying assumptions about an uncertain future, scenario-based prediction work allows students to consider the future, prepare for diverse possibilities, focus on “what if” situations to enhance adaptability and risk management and better prepare for an ever-changing world. Ultimately all humans—past, present and future—determine which scenario eventually comes to pass.
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Francis W. Parker School educates students to think and act with empathy, courage and clarity as responsible citizens and leaders in a diverse democratic society and global community.